These tools include a set of rules of thumb that he called "The 7 Percent Solution", time-tested principles for reading large volumes of data (or “big data” if you like), and the scientific method. ![]() To address these problems, he supplies readers with tools for understanding where they can find real signals amid all that noise. The Signal and the Noise is both an exploration of prediction, including a survey of some major prediction failures (e.g., Bayes's rule, the global financial crisis), and a study on how to make predictions by weighing possible outcomes without succumbing to overconfidence or wishful thinking.Īs Silver points out in his book, predictions suffer from two big problems: "the signal problem" (collecting enough data) and "the noise problem" (not freaking out when data seems random). This book is written by Nate Silver, an American statistician, and writer with a background in baseball and political analysis, who is the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight. 1) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't ![]() We've listed five of those books below, and why they deserve a place on the shelf of every product manager.
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